Corporate Credit Rating 2025 for AF ENERGIA SRL: B1+ (First Issuance)

modefinance published the Solicited Corporate Credit Rating of AF ENERGIA S.R.L. on the website and the rating assigned to the entity is B1+ (First Issuance). The analysis indicates that the company maintains an overall adequate profile, reflecting an average capability to meet its financial obligations, with a limited exposure to adverse economic scenarios.

AF Energia, headquartered in Abano Terme (PD), operates in both the Retail and Business segments through the supply of electricity and natural gas, the design and implementation of Renewable Energy Communities (RECs), and the sale of latest-generation condensing boilers. Following the stabilization of energy prices, the Company resumed growth in its customer base starting in October 2023; as of November 2025, the portfolio includes approximately 23,000 PODs and around 8,700 PDRs, largely consisting of condominium customers, which represent the Company’s historical target segment. Based on the evolution of customer switch-outs as of November 2025, churn rates are below industry averages, supported by a direct relationship with end customers and a periodic monitoring of agents’ performance.

A.F. Energia S.R.L. (hereinafter “AF Energia” or the “Company”) reported, as of December 2024, a positive Net Financial Position (NFP) of EUR 5.2 million and shareholders’ equity increasing to EUR 9.9 million, supported by solid operating performance. In 2024, a significant increase in electricity and natural gas volumes sold, approximately +30% compared to 2023, translated into a strong expansion in revenues to EUR 40.6 million (+EUR 9.4 million YoY) and a marked improvement in EBITDA, which reached EUR 3.7 million. The year closed with net profit rising to EUR 2.4 million and a strong ROE of 24%.

The 2024 cash flow profile highlights a solid ability to generate resources from operating activities, underpinned by the net result and a reduction in working capital, mainly due to the offsetting of tax receivables and the repayment of certain advances to suppliers. Operating cash flow, at EUR 6.2 million, fully covered the requirements associated with the repayment of outstanding borrowings (EUR 1.4 million as of December 2024) and the payment of EUR 1.0 million in dividends, ultimately leading to a substantial increase in cash and cash equivalents to EUR 6.7 million (+EUR 4.3 million YoY).

Management data for the first nine months of 2025 indicate a sustained consolidation of revenues (EUR 34.1 million; +EUR 7.7 million vs. 9M2024) and of operating margins, driven by higher sales volumes, up 22% for electricity and 16% for gas. From a financial standpoint, the evolution of the NFP remained cash-positive in all months observed through October 2025 (EUR 7.9 million). The Agency considers the updated projections prepared by Management to be consistent, as they estimate a cash-positive NFP in excess of EUR 10 million at year-end 2025, also benefitting from shareholders’ intention to reinvest the net profits. These dynamics evidence the Management’s sound track record in monitoring and managing the Company’s key business risks, including credit, procurement, and financial risks.

The review of the Bank of Italy Central Credit Register did not highlight any critical issues. The Company has ample headroom on self-liquidating and revocable credit lines to address potential liquidity needs related to business expansion and/or seasonality.

AF Energia is wholly owned by AF Petroli S.p.A., a company established in 2001 to operate in the distribution and logistics of petroleum products. Today, AF Petroli S.p.A. operates service stations and car washes under the AF Station brand, and also markets a wide range of lubricants for industrial, automotive, and agricultural applications. The Company is managed by Mr. Federico Agostini, together with two other directors. Their activities are supported by the Board of Statutory Auditors and, since 2022, by the Supervisory Body pursuant to the organizational model under Legislative Decree No. 231/2001. The Company distinguishes itself for robust compliance activities, particularly in relation to NIS2 and ETS2 regulations, and for its ESG achievements, as evidenced by the receipt of the Industria Felix Award 2025.

The Company has a solid size, ranking among the leading Italian players in the energy sector with revenues in the EUR 10–100 million range. Its capital structure is more than adequate in relation to total indebtedness. Although profitability is slightly below the sector median, margin levels, ROE, and ROI remain solid. The overall economic and financial condition of the peer group appears sound. The sample group analysed shows a significant strengthening in profitability, now at more than satisfactory levels. Capitalization relative to total indebtedness remains somewhat limited and not fully sufficient; however, solvency ratios have improved over the 2022–2024 period. Lastly, the allocation of funds between sources and uses is appropriately balanced.

In 2024, energy prices in Italy stabilized due to the expansion of renewable sources, reduced consumption, and favorable weather conditions. However, prices remained above pre-crisis levels due to the impact of fossil fuels. Renewable sources accounted for approximately 50% of electricity generation and are expected to be supported in the future by new investments by Terna and the launch of the MACSE, which aims to incentivize storage systems. At the European level, LNG accounted for 38% of gas imports, partially offsetting the decline in Russian supplies.

As of the end of April 2025, gas storage stood at 47%, with 90% of capacity already allocated for the 2025/26 season, thereby ensuring energy security. In the first quarter of 2025, the Italian economy posted moderate growth, supported by household consumption, underpinned by a stable labor market and rising real incomes. Investments remained weak, constrained by underutilized production capacity and tight financial conditions. Growth was driven by the services sector and construction projects linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). Manufacturing showed signs of recovery, though it remains vulnerable to rising tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. The Bank of Italy forecasts GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025, 0.8% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027.

The present Corporate Credit rating is issued by modefinance under EU Regulation 1060/2009 and following amendments.

The present rating is solicited and is based on both private and public information. The rated entity and/or related third parties have provided all private information used. Modefinance had access to some accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity and/or related third parties. Solicited and unsolicited ratings issued by modefinance are of comparable quality, as the solicitation status has no effect on methodologies used. More comprehensive information on modefinance Corporate Credit Ratings are available at http://cra.modefinance.com/en

The present Corporate Credit Rating is issued on MORE Methodology 2.0 and Rating Methodology 1.0. A comprehensive description of both methodologies, as well as information on Modefinance Rating Scale and Mappings, is available at http://cra.modefinance.com/en/methodologies.

For information on historical default rates of modefinance Corporate Credit Ratings please refer to ESMA Central Repository and ESMA European Rating Platform.

modefinance refers to default as a company under bankruptcy, or under liquidation status, or under administration or for which missed payments on a financial obligation are officially recorded.

The quality of the information available on the rated entity and used to determine the present rating was judged by modefinance as satisfactory. Please note that modefinance does not perform any audit activity and is not in a position to guarantee the accuracy of any information used and/or reported in the present document. As such, modefinance can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

The present credit rating was notified to the rated entity in order to identify potential factual errors, as prescribed by the CRA Regulation. No amendments were applied after the notification process.

Modefinance did not provided the rated company with ancillary services. The rating action issued by modefinance was performed independently. The analysts, members of the rating team involved in the process, modefinance Srl and its members and shareholders do not have any conflicts of interest in relation to the Rated Entity and/or Related Third Parties. If in the future a potential conflict of interest is identified in relation to the people reported above, modefinance Ratings will provide the appropriate information and if necessary, the rating will be withdrawn.

The present Credit Rating is an opinion of the general creditworthiness that modefinance issues on the rated entity and should be relied upon to a limited degree. The issued rating is subject to ongoing monitoring until withdrawal.

Head Analyst - Carmela Santomarco, Rating Analyst
carmela.santomarco@modefinance.com

Responsible for Rating Approval - Pinar Dilek, Rating Process Manager
pinar.dilek@modefinance.com