Corporate Credit Rating 2026 for TREMAGI SRL: B1+ (Affirm)

modefinance published the Solicited Corporate Credit Rating of TREMAGI SRL on the website and the rating assigned to the entity is B1+ (Affirm). The analysis revealed that the company has an adequate economic and financial profile, with average capability to meet its financial obligations and limited sensitivity to adverse economic scenarios.

TREMAGI S.R.L. is a key player in the predominantly Italian energy market. As of December 2025, it served approximately 743,000 electricity delivery points ("PODs") and 118,000 gas delivery points ("PDRs"), primarily residential (85%), with smaller shares attributable to multi-family buildings (9%) and business clients (7%). The Group's customer base has grown substantially following ILLUMIA Spa’s award of three territorial areas (North 3, Center 2, and South 1), which led, from 1 July 2024 to the activation of approximately 500’000 non-vulnerable residential customers belonging to the Gradual Protections market. This development is consistent with the repositioning implemented after the energy crisis, which had previously led to a marked reduction in the business segment (20% of delivery points in 2022). To cover the residual share of end customers on fixed-price contracts (less than 5% of annual volumes) and to optimize daily coverage, the Group primarily uses swaps and futures contracts that are not designated for hedge accounting purposes.

The Group is also broadening its scope into supply-related ancillary services, including photovoltaics, storage systems, and air conditioning, following the acquisition of a minority stake in UNIENERGY's capital in 2025. Lastly, it is active in the real estate sector, which is non-core to its activities, through Casaglia and BHS.

TREMAGI S.R.L. Group displays adequate economic and financial performance. The Group closed 2025 with strongly growing revenues (1.17 billion of euros, +23%), supported by the full-year contribution of the GPS customer base. Operating margin, however, declined by 10%, reflecting both the temporary application of more favorable pricing to that customer segment and operating losses attributable to foreign subsidiaries that were later divested. Profitability indicators also weakened, reflecting the dynamics of EBITDA and the downsizing of income related to building tax credits (-2.1 million of euros YoY), although they remain at satisfactory levels. Shareholders' equity rose to 103.8 million of euros (+11%) supported by net profit for the year, while gross financial debt decreased to 129.8 million of euros, contributing to an improvement in leverage (3.19x) and financial leverage (1.25x), the latter still well above sector medians. At the same time, the increase in Net Financial Position (NFP) from 38.3 to 46.2 million of euros reflects a greater absorption of liquidity, although the debt structure remains sustainable, as evidenced by the NFP/EBITDA ratio of 0.86x. The NFP does not include the readily liquidatable securities portfolio (13.3 million of euros), representing an additional liquidity cushion available to meet potential business needs. Furthermore, maintains access to a 70 million of euros RCF, currently in the process of renewal, which has recorded average utilization below 15% over the last twelve months - supporting a comfortable liquidity profile.

In 2025, the Group made substantial investments (38.1 million of euros), mainly related to the interest-free financing granted to Casaglia, works on the Fossombrone real estate portfolio, and the agent network. These outlays, together with repayments of outstanding financing (12 million of euros), fully absorbed the net operating cash flow (CFON) - which fell to 27.6 million from 33.8 million of euros due to the contraction in operating margins - resulting in a liquidity absorption of 23 million of euros.

With a view to diversifying its business activities and strengthening its competitive positioning in the medium term, the Group has begun building multiple large-scale photovoltaic plants for collective self-consumption, totalling approximately 70 MW over the 2026-2028 three-year period. For 2026, Management expects economic performance to remain broadly in line with 2025, with a significant improvement in EBITDA and profitability starting in 2027, once favorable conditions granted to GPS customers are phased out. From a financial standpoint, investments in production facilities will lead to a moderate increase in the NFP/EBITDA ratio in 2026, but their sustainability will be supported by dedicated financing plans; the Group has already signed contracts for approximately 8 million of euros relating to the first plants, expected to be completed within the year, with repayment plans generally lasting 15 years and a 1-year grace (pre-amortization) period.

TREMAGI Srl is wholly owned by entrepreneur Francesco Maria Bernardi, who also serves as sole Director. His management is overseen by a Board of Statutory Auditors, while PricewaterhouseCoopers SpA is responsible for auditing the Group's consolidated financial statements and the stand-alone financial statements of the parent company, Illumia SpA, EnergyUp, and Seed Commodities SpA. The Grouphas a relatively articulated structure, with the holding company, TREMAGI Srl, operating in the electricity and gas trading business (core business) through its shareholdings in Illumia Spa — the Group's main company — EnergyUp Srl, and, historically, Wekiwi Srl. In response to a more competitive market environment, the Group has divested the "Wekiwi" commercial brand, aimed at online customers, to focus its commercial strategy on the "Illumia" brand and lower-risk customer portfolio. Consistently, at the start of 2026, the Group sold its foreign operations in France and Spain (Wekiwi SAS and Wekiwi SL) for a total value of 6.4 million of euros, relating to a portfolio of approximately 30,000 POD (electricity delivery points) and 12,000 PDR (gas redelivery points). Similarly, the Italian parent company Wekiwi Srl underwent a partial demerger in favor of Illumia S.p.A., with the transfer of the related retail business unit, effective from May 2026.

TREMAGI Group shows a prominent dimensional positioning within its peer group, ranking at the 88th percentile. The 23% annual growth in sales revenue was driven by the increase in electricity volumes, due to the full-year impact of the entry, starting in July 2024, of nearly half a million customers from the Gradual Protections market. In terms of solvency, the Group shows an overall sufficient profile, with significant, though declining, financial debt, down from 142 million to 130 million of euros. Profitability positioning remains below the median for the second consecutive year, mainly due to the transitory effect linked to the GPS auctions. ROE continues the gradual decline already observed in 2024, though it remains at satisfactory levels.

The solvency of the reference peer group remains broadly sufficient, benefiting from stronger balance sheets driven by the greater stabilization of energy prices following the energy crunch. After the improvement recorded over the 2022-2024 period, the sector financial leverage trend reverses in 2025, although it remains at a balanced level. Similarly, after three consecutive years of growth over 2022-2024, sector profitability halts its expansion phase in 2025, remaining at adequate levels.

Between the end of 2025 and 2026, the global energy market continues to evolve in a context of strong growth in electricity demand and rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power. Despite the energy transition, oil and gas continue to play a central role in the global energy mix. Geopolitical tensions related to Iran and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have increased market volatility, pushing Brent prices above USD 110 per barrel and generating global inflationary pressures.

In Italy, electricity consumption in 2025 reached approximately 311 TWh, with a renewable share of 41% and installed capacity of around 83.5 GW. However, strong dependence on gas continues to keep energy prices high, prompting the government to postpone the closure of some coal-fired plants to ensure energy security.

In the first quarter of 2026, the Italian economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, in an international context marked by a sharp increase in geopolitical uncertainty. Activity was mainly supported by services, partly due to the temporary boost from the Winter Olympic Games, while manufacturing showed signs of slowing linked to rising energy costs and weak foreign demand. Household consumption grew moderately, affected by worsening confidence and the erosion of purchasing power linked to rising energy prices; investment slowed, with a limited positive contribution due to uncertainties in the macroeconomic outlook and the fading of incentives in the residential sector. According to the Bank of Italy's most recent projections, Italian GDP would grow by 0.5% in 2026 and 2027, before accelerating to 0.8% in 2028. Economic activity dynamics would be supported in the medium term by the gradual easing of inflationary pressures and the recovery of domestic demand, while in the short term it remains exposed to downside risks related to the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, energy commodity prices, and international trade.

In the following table, the addressing factors, actions or events that could lead to an upgrade or a downgrade are summarized: 

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Head Analyst - Carmela Santomarco, Rating Analyst
carmela.santomarco@modefinance.com

Responsible for Rating Approval - Giada D'Avenia, Rating Process Manager
giada.davenia@modefinance.com