Corporate Credit Rating for THEMA ENERGIA SRL: B1- (First Issuance)

modefinance has published on the website the Corporate Credit Rating (Solicited) of THEMA ENERGIA SRL, assigning the rating of B1- (First Issuance). The analysis highlights that the company has an adequate financial position, appearing capable of withstanding adverse economic conditions in the medium and long term.

THEMA ENERGIA, established in 2014 and headquartered in Foligno, operates as an independent supplier of electricity and gas. The Company has evolved from a simple reseller into a direct dispatching user, increasing its autonomy and control over the supply chain. It serves both retail and B2B customers through a network of approximately forty consultants distributed across the national territory. The Company adopts a structured governance framework, including an Organizational Model pursuant to Italian Legislative Decree 231/2001, a Supervisory Body, and ISO 9001 certification. The Industrial Plan anticipates a stabilization trend in energy prices and volume growth up to 220 GWh by 2028. It also outlines a financial strategy focused on working capital optimization and a reduced reliance on structured finance.

The Company’s solvency is not entirely adequate, although it has improved compared to the previous financial year; nevertheless, its financial exposure appears sustainable. Liquidity management continues to be sound. The Company’s profitability has reached an adequate level and is improving compared to the prior year.

The Company is governed by a collegiate administrative body chaired by Mr. Guido Tofi (also the majority shareholder of TOFI HOLDING S.R.L.) and has a sole statutory auditor. THEMA has a clearly identifiable corporate structure, with share capital held by several companies and Mr. Andrea Cicioni. The Company, in turn, controls OUTBYTE, an Italian company that contributes to the management of the Group’s business.

In terms of size, the Company ranks above the sector median, positioning itself among the medium-to-large companies within its reference peer group. In terms of solvency, consistent with the financial analysis, the Company’s positioning is still not fully adequate. Similarly, THEMA ranks below the sector median in profitability; however, its indicators are at an overall adequate level.

In 2024, the Italian energy market experienced a phase of stabilization, with electricity and gas prices declining as a result of increased renewable energy production, lower consumption, and favorable weather conditions. Nevertheless, prices remain above pre-crisis levels, mainly due to continued reliance on fossil fuels, which are more expensive and volatile. Renewable sources, particularly solar and hydroelectric power, accounted for 50% of electricity production. To support this energy transition, Terna launched €2.3 billion of strategic infrastructure investments and introduced MACSE, a new mechanism to incentivize energy storage, with initial auctions scheduled for 2025. The EU increased the share of LNG in its gas imports (from 20% in 2021 to 38% in 2024), offsetting the reduction in Russian gas through new terminals such as those in Piombino and Ravenna. Gas storage reached record levels, with 90% of winter 2025/26 capacity already allocated by April 2025. Nonetheless, structural vulnerabilities persist, including dependence on imports and exposure to geopolitical and climate-related risks, which require ongoing monitoring.

Macroeconomically, economic activity in Italy remained subdued in Q4 2024, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing and a slowdown in services and construction. These sectors, however, continued to record modest expansion, partly supported by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). Domestic demand was constrained by slower household spending and still unfavorable investment conditions. In autumn, Italian goods exports were hindered by a sharp decline in global demand, and protectionist policies announced by the new U.S. administration are expected to negatively affect exports to the U.S. market. According to the latest projections from the Bank of Italy, GDP grew by 0.5% in 2024 and is expected to expand at an average annual rate of around 1% over the 2025–2027 period.

In the following table, the addressing factors, actions or events that could lead to an upgrade or a downgrade are summarized: 

The present Corporate Credit rating is published by modefinance under EU Regulation 1060/2009 and following amendments.

The present rating is solicited and is based on both private and public information. The rated entity and/or related third parties have provided all private information used. modefinance had access to some accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity and/or related third parties. Solicited and unsolicited ratings issued by modefinance are of comparable quality, as the solicitation status has no effect on methodologies used. More comprehensive information on modefinance Corporate Credit Ratings are available at http://cra.modefinance.com/en

The present Corporate Credit Rating is issued on MORE Methodology 2.0 and Rating Methodology 1.0. A comprehensive description of both methodologies, as well as information on modefinance Rating Scale and Mappings, is available at http://cra.modefinance.com/en/methodologies.

For information on historical default rates of modefinance Corporate Credit Ratings please refer to ESMA Central Repository and ESMA European Rating Platform.

modefinance adopts the following definition of default: a company in bankruptcy, in involuntary liquidation, in controlled administration, or that is insolvent with respect to an expired financial commitment. 

The quality of the information available on the rated entity and used to determine the present rating was judged by modefinance as satisfactory. Please note that modefinance does not perform any audit activity and is not in a position to guarantee the accuracy of any information used and/or reported in the present document. As such, modefinance can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

The present credit rating was notified to the rated entity in order to identify potential factual errors, as prescribed by the CRA Regulation.

No amendments were applied after the notification process.

The rated company purchased ancillary services from modefinance (preliminary rating). Modefinance guarantees that this purchase of ancillary activities does not constitute any conflict of interest.

The rating action issued by modefinance was performed independently. The analysts, members of the rating team involved in the process, modefinance Srl and its members and shareholders do not have any conflicts of interest in relation to the Rated Entity and/or Related Third Parties. If in the future a potential conflict of interest is identified in relation to the people reported above, modefinance Ratings will provide the appropriate information and if necessary, the rating will be withdrawn.

The present Credit Rating is an opinion of the general creditworthiness that modefinance issues on the rated entity and should be relied upon to a limited degree. The issued rating is subject to ongoing monitoring until withdrawal.

Head Analyst - Tommaso Viola, Rating Analyst
tommaso.viola@modefinance.com

Responsible for Rating Approval - Giada D'Avenia, Rating Process Manager
giada.davenia@modefinance.com